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13Nov/082

California Proposition 8 Vote Analysis By County

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Of all of the propositions, Proposition 8 has been the most discussed and has drawn the most attention. Here's the vote breakdown by county for California Proposition 8 along with some highlights.

I wouldn't put too much faith in the county counts, since if you base any outcomes based solely on the number of counties then you are not taking into consideration that the smallest county only cast 672 total votes and the largest county cast 2,898,628 votes. So by counting each county equally, it gives too much emphasis on smaller counties compared to larger counties.

Since Proposition 8 is a based on popular vote and not an electoral college system, the number of counties who voted for/against is meaningless except for personal curiosity.

Votes cast do not necessary represent or correlate to county population. When the qualifier "votes cast" is used, it means the total number of votes cast for/against Proposition 8.

A "Margin of Victory" is defined as the difference between the two vote totals. For example, if a county was 55% vs 45%, then the Margin of Victory would be 10%. In addition, if there were 100 vs 75 votes, then the Margin of Victory would be 25 votes.

Votes By County

County Yes Votes Yes % No Votes No %
Alameda 180,363 38.20% 291,740 61.80%
Alpine 293 43.60% 379 56.40%
Amador 11,166 64.20% 6,240 35.80%
Butte 47,179 56.70% 36,035 43.30%
Calaveras 12,590 63.20% 7,352 36.80%
Colusa 3,937 71.60% 1,568 28.40%
Contra Costa 189,910 44.60% 235,319 55.40%
Del Norte 5,060 60.10% 3,364 39.90%
El Dorado 49,809 58.40% 35,499 41.60%
Fresno 156,761 68.90% 70,941 31.10%
Glenn 7,177 73.30% 2,623 26.70%
Humboldt 19,529 39.90% 29,316 60.10%
Imperial 20,217 70.10% 8,644 29.90%
Inyo 4,335 60.40% 2,846 39.60%
Kern 145,855 75.30% 47,898 24.70%
Kings 25,604 73.70% 9,167 26.30%
Lake 10,669 52.60% 9,621 47.40%
Lassen 8,021 71.30% 3,241 28.70%
Los Angeles 1,457,470 50.30% 1,441,158 49.70%
Madera 26,279 73.40% 9,545 26.60%
Marin 29,788 25.00% 89,241 75.00%
Mariposa 5,493 62.30% 3,336 37.70%
Mendocino 8,627 37.80% 14,166 62.20%
Merced 43,424 71.00% 17,749 29.00%
Modoc 3,278 74.20% 1,141 25.80%
Mono 2,229 44.40% 2,782 55.60%
Monterey 55,229 48.20% 59,317 51.80%
Napa 19,248 44.90% 23,586 55.10%
Nevada 23,744 50.90% 22,951 49.10%
Orange 621,289 57.90% 453,020 42.10%
Placer 87,906 59.90% 58,869 40.10%
Plumas 6,575 60.00% 4,401 40.00%
Riverside 266,159 64.30% 147,918 35.70%
Sacramento 248,377 53.70% 214,472 46.30%
San Benito 10,258 54.90% 8,429 45.10%
San Bernardino 367,104 67.00% 181,230 33.00%
San Diego 610,817 53.80% 525,595 46.20%
San Francisco 87,828 24.80% 264,976 75.20%
San Joaquin 108,864 65.50% 57,503 34.50%
San Luis Obispo 65,619 51.30% 62,530 48.70%
San Mateo 98,996 38.40% 158,602 61.60%
Santa Barbara 76,982 46.80% 87,359 53.20%
Santa Clara 243,953 44.30% 306,026 55.70%
Santa Cruz 28,738 28.60% 71,713 71.40%
Shasta 46,834 69.90% 20,186 30.10%
Sierra 1,272 64.20% 711 35.80%
Siskiyou 10,285 60.10% 6,845 39.90%
Solano 65,446 56.20% 51,112 43.80%
Sonoma 65,898 33.90% 128,466 66.10%
Stanislaus 103,353 68.10% 48,594 31.90%
Sutter 12,712 70.70% 5,290 29.30%
Tehama 13,391 72.70% 5,048 27.30%
Trinity 3,563 56.20% 2,785 43.80%
Tulare 59,013 75.40% 19,284 24.60%
Tuolumne 16,661 62.60% 9,957 37.40%
Ventura 127,124 53.30% 111,465 46.70%
Yolo 28,727 41.50% 40,400 58.50%
Yuba 11,365 67.80% 5,411 32.20%
Totals 6,068,393 52.25% 5,544,962 47.75%

Largest Margin of Victory Yes Votes

  1. San Bernardino County (185,874)
  2. Orange County (168,269)
  3. Riverside County (118,241)
  4. Kern County (97,957)
  5. Fresno County (85,820)

Largest Margin of Victory No Votes

  1. San Francisco County (177,148)
  2. Alameda County (111,377)
  3. Sonoma County (62,568)
  4. Santa Clara (62,073)
  5. San Mateo (59,606)

Highest Yes Percentage

  1. Tulare County (75.40%)
  2. Kern County (75.30%)
  3. Modoc County (74.20%)
  4. Kings County (73.70%)
  5. Madera County (73.40%)

Highest No Percentage

  1. San Francisco County (75.20%)
  2. Marin County (75.00%)
  3. Santa Cruz County (71.40%)
  4. Sonoma County (66.10%)
  5. Mendocino County (62.20%)

Narrowest Yes Victory (<5%)

  1. Los Angeles County (0.56%)
  2. Nevada County (1.70%)
  3. San Luis Obispo County (2.41%)

Narrowest No Victory (<5%)

  1. Monterey County (3.5%)

County Totals By Percentage

  > 50% > 60% > 70%
Yes Counties 42 28 12
No Counties 16 8 3

County Totals By Percentages and Total (Prop 8) Votes Cast

County Totals Greater Than 50% By Total (Prop 8) Votes Cast
  < 100k > 100k > 500k > 1 million
> 50% Yes Counties 28 14 4 3
> 50% No Counties 6 10 1 0
Total 34 24 5 3
County Totals Greater Than 60% By Total (Prop 8) Votes Cast
  < 100k > 100k > 500k > 1 million
> 60% Yes Counties 22 6 1 0
> 60% No Counties 2 6 0 0
Total 24 12 1 0
County Totals Greater than 70% By Total (Prop 8) Votes Cast
  < 100k > 100k > 500k > 1 million
> 70% Yes Counties 11 1 0 0
> 70% No Counties 0 3 0 0
Total 11 4 0 0

Counties by Margin of Victory Percentage

All counties
  > 0 % > 5% > 10% > 20% > 30% > 40%
Yes Counties 42 39 34 27 18 12
No Counties 16 15 14 8 4 3
Total 58 54 48 35 22 15
Counties with more than 100,000 votes cast
  > 0 % > 5% > 10% > 20% > 30% > 40%
Yes Counties 15 13 9 6 5 1
No Counties 10 9 8 6 4 3
Total 25 22 17 12 9 4

Counties by Median Income

  < $45,000 > $60,000
Yes Counties 18 7
No Counties 2 9

Counties by Education Level Percentage

  < 10% with Bachelor's degree > 15% with Bachelor's degree
Yes Counties 22 7
No Counties 0 13

Other Interesting Analysis

All counties that voted for the proposition (Yes counties) also voted for President Bush in 2004.

Of the counties that are > 75% white, 16 counties voted "Yes" and 2 counties voted "No".

Of the counties that are > 25% Latino, 17 counties voted "Yes" and 2 counties voted "No".

Resources:

Note: A few of the calculations were done by me, so if you notice any fuzzy math, let me know and I'll double check the calculations and update the post.

James Welch

James Welch is a software engineer in Vermont working for a large information technology company and specializing in .NET. Additionally, he holds a Master’s Degree in Software Engineering and a Bachelor of Science Degree in Computer Science. Jim also enjoys local craft beer, comic books, and science-fiction and fantasy novels, games, and movies.

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Comments (2) Trackbacks (1)
  1. Well done. The statistics were very interesting to read.

    It’s a shame that it didn’t pass, but at least everyone got heard.

  2. virgomonkey… prop 8 DID pass…
    and it’s a shame.


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